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JJ Urquiza vs General Lamadrid — Primera C 2026

JJ Urquiza
JJ Urquiza
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
General Lamadrid
General Lamadrid
1/28/2023Primera CPrimera C · Round 1Estadio Ramón Roque Martín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

JJ Urquiza45%
×Draw29%
General Lamadrid26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JJ Urquiza
1.23
General Lamadrid
0.85

JJ Urquiza creates 45% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 136 away

creates per match

JJ Urquiza
1.09
General Lamadrid
1.01

allows per match

JJ Urquiza
0.69
General Lamadrid
1.36

finishing

JJ Urquiza+0.00on par
General Lamadrid+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JJ Urquiza ↓

General Lamadrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

JJ Urquiza or draw
74%
JJ Urquiza or General Lamadrid
71%
Draw or General Lamadrid
55%

Winning margin

JJ Urquiza wins by 2+
20%
General Lamadrid wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

JJ Urquiza 1+ goals
71%
JJ Urquiza 2+ goals
35%
JJ Urquiza 3+ goals
13%
General Lamadrid 1+ goals
57%
General Lamadrid 2+ goals
21%
General Lamadrid 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

JJ Urquiza (draw refunded)
64%
General Lamadrid (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JJ Urquiza at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.69 · 65 matches

General Lamadrid away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.36 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JJ Urquiza attack 1.09 + General Lamadrid defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.23

General Lamadrid attack 1.01 + JJ Urquiza defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

JJ Urquiza scores more
45%
level
29%
General Lamadrid scores more
26%

JJ Urquiza at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "JJ Urquiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JJ Urquiza vs General Lamadrid

JJ Urquiza beat General Lamadrid 2-0 in Primera C on January 28, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Roque Martín in Loma Hermosa, Provincia de Buenos Aires.