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General Lamadrid vs JJ Urquiza — Primera C 2026

General Lamadrid
General Lamadrid
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
JJ Urquiza
JJ Urquiza
6/4/2023Primera CPrimera C · Round 20Estadio Enrique VI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

General Lamadrid42%
×Draw29%
JJ Urquiza29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Lamadrid
1.19
JJ Urquiza
0.93

General Lamadrid creates 28% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 68 away

creates per match

General Lamadrid
1.31
JJ Urquiza
1.01

allows per match

General Lamadrid
0.84
JJ Urquiza
1.06

finishing

General Lamadrid+0.00on par
JJ Urquiza+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Lamadrid ↓

JJ Urquiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

General Lamadrid or draw
71%
General Lamadrid or JJ Urquiza
71%
Draw or JJ Urquiza
58%

Winning margin

General Lamadrid wins by 2+
18%
JJ Urquiza wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

General Lamadrid 1+ goals
70%
General Lamadrid 2+ goals
33%
General Lamadrid 3+ goals
12%
JJ Urquiza 1+ goals
61%
JJ Urquiza 2+ goals
24%
JJ Urquiza 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

General Lamadrid (draw refunded)
59%
JJ Urquiza (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Lamadrid at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.84 · 140 matches

JJ Urquiza away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Lamadrid attack 1.31 + JJ Urquiza defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

JJ Urquiza attack 1.01 + General Lamadrid defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

General Lamadrid scores more
42%
level
29%
JJ Urquiza scores more
29%

General Lamadrid at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "General Lamadrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: General Lamadrid 2–1 JJ Urquiza

General Lamadrid beat JJ Urquiza 2-1 in Primera C on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique VI in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.