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Jiskra Domažlice II vs Příbram II — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Jiskra Domažlice II
Jiskra Domažlice II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Příbram II
Příbram II
11/5/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 14Stadion Střelnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jiskra Domažlice II44%
×Draw21%
Příbram II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jiskra Domažlice II
2.00
Příbram II
1.77

Jiskra Domažlice II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

creates per match

Jiskra Domažlice II
1.67
Příbram II
1.80

allows per match

Jiskra Domažlice II
1.73
Příbram II
2.33

finishing

Jiskra Domažlice II+0.00on par
Příbram II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiskra Domažlice II ↓

Příbram II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Jiskra Domažlice II or draw
65%
Jiskra Domažlice II or Příbram II
79%
Draw or Příbram II
56%

Winning margin

Jiskra Domažlice II wins by 2+
24%
Příbram II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Jiskra Domažlice II 1+ goals
86%
Jiskra Domažlice II 2+ goals
59%
Jiskra Domažlice II 3+ goals
32%
Příbram II 1+ goals
83%
Příbram II 2+ goals
53%
Příbram II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Jiskra Domažlice II (draw refunded)
56%
Příbram II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiskra Domažlice II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.73 · 60 matches

Příbram II away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiskra Domažlice II attack 1.67 + Příbram II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Příbram II attack 1.80 + Jiskra Domažlice II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jiskra Domažlice II scores more
44%
level
21%
Příbram II scores more
35%

Jiskra Domažlice II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jiskra Domažlice II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Jiskra Domažlice II 4–0 Příbram II

Jiskra Domažlice II beat Příbram II 4-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Střelnice in Domažlice.