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Jiskra Domažlice II vs Jindřichův Hradec — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Jiskra Domažlice II
Jiskra Domažlice II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
5/26/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 28Stadion Střelnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Jiskra Domažlice II52%
×Draw21%
Jindřichův Hradec27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jiskra Domažlice II
2.08
Jindřichův Hradec
1.44

Jiskra Domažlice II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 56 away

creates per match

Jiskra Domažlice II
1.67
Jindřichův Hradec
1.14

allows per match

Jiskra Domažlice II
1.73
Jindřichův Hradec
2.50

finishing

Jiskra Domažlice II+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiskra Domažlice II ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Jiskra Domažlice II or draw
73%
Jiskra Domažlice II or Jindřichův Hradec
79%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
48%

Winning margin

Jiskra Domažlice II wins by 2+
31%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jiskra Domažlice II 1+ goals
87%
Jiskra Domažlice II 2+ goals
61%
Jiskra Domažlice II 3+ goals
34%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
76%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
42%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Jiskra Domažlice II (draw refunded)
66%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiskra Domažlice II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.73 · 60 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.50 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiskra Domažlice II attack 1.67 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.14 + Jiskra Domažlice II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Jiskra Domažlice II scores more
52%
level
21%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
27%

Jiskra Domažlice II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jiskra Domažlice II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jiskra Domažlice II 1 – 0 Jindřichův Hradec

Jiskra Domažlice II beat Jindřichův Hradec 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Střelnice in Domažlice.