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Jindřichův Hradec vs Jiskra Domažlice II — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Jiskra Domažlice II
Jiskra Domažlice II
10/29/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 13Hřiště Vajgar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec41%
×Draw21%
Jiskra Domažlice II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
2.00
Jiskra Domažlice II
1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 60 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.45
Jiskra Domažlice II
1.58

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.21
Jiskra Domažlice II
2.55

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Jiskra Domažlice II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Jiskra Domažlice II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
62%
Jindřichův Hradec or Jiskra Domažlice II
79%
Draw or Jiskra Domažlice II
59%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
23%
Jiskra Domažlice II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
86%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
59%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
32%
Jiskra Domažlice II 1+ goals
85%
Jiskra Domažlice II 2+ goals
56%
Jiskra Domažlice II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
52%
Jiskra Domažlice II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

Jiskra Domažlice II away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.55 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.45 + Jiskra Domažlice II defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.00

Jiskra Domažlice II attack 1.58 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
41%
level
21%
Jiskra Domažlice II scores more
38%

Jindřichův Hradec at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Jindřichův Hradec 4–1 Jiskra Domažlice II

Jindřichův Hradec beat Jiskra Domažlice II 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Hřiště Vajgar in Jindřichův Hradec.