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Jiskra Domažlice II vs Horní Bříza — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Jiskra Domažlice II
Jiskra Domažlice II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Horní Bříza
Horní Bříza
3/26/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 19Stadion Střelnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jiskra Domažlice II62%
×Draw20%
Horní Bříza18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jiskra Domažlice II
2.13
Horní Bříza
1.06

Jiskra Domažlice II creates 101% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Jiskra Domažlice II
1.67
Horní Bříza
0.40

allows per match

Jiskra Domažlice II
1.73
Horní Bříza
2.60

finishing

Jiskra Domažlice II+0.00on par
Horní Bříza+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiskra Domažlice II ↓

Horní Bříza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Jiskra Domažlice II or draw
82%
Jiskra Domažlice II or Horní Bříza
80%
Draw or Horní Bříza
38%

Winning margin

Jiskra Domažlice II wins by 2+
38%
Horní Bříza wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jiskra Domažlice II 1+ goals
88%
Jiskra Domažlice II 2+ goals
63%
Jiskra Domažlice II 3+ goals
35%
Horní Bříza 1+ goals
65%
Horní Bříza 2+ goals
29%
Horní Bříza 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Jiskra Domažlice II (draw refunded)
77%
Horní Bříza (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiskra Domažlice II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.73 · 60 matches

Horní Bříza away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiskra Domažlice II attack 1.67 + Horní Bříza defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.13

Horní Bříza attack 0.40 + Jiskra Domažlice II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Jiskra Domažlice II scores more
62%
level
20%
Horní Bříza scores more
18%

Jiskra Domažlice II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Jiskra Domažlice II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jiskra Domažlice II 0 – 0 Horní Bříza

Jiskra Domažlice II and Horní Bříza drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Střelnice in Domažlice.