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Horní Bříza vs Jiskra Domažlice II — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Horní Bříza
Horní Bříza
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Jiskra Domažlice II
Jiskra Domažlice II
8/27/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 4Fotbalově Hřiště Horní Bříza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Horní Bříza33%
×Draw21%
Jiskra Domažlice II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horní Bříza
1.71
Jiskra Domažlice II
2.05

Jiskra Domažlice II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

Horní Bříza
0.87
Jiskra Domažlice II
1.58

allows per match

Horní Bříza
2.53
Jiskra Domažlice II
2.55

finishing

Horní Bříza+0.00on par
Jiskra Domažlice II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horní Bříza ↓

Jiskra Domažlice II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Horní Bříza or draw
54%
Horní Bříza or Jiskra Domažlice II
79%
Draw or Jiskra Domažlice II
67%

Winning margin

Horní Bříza wins by 2+
16%
Jiskra Domažlice II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Horní Bříza 1+ goals
82%
Horní Bříza 2+ goals
51%
Horní Bříza 3+ goals
24%
Jiskra Domažlice II 1+ goals
87%
Jiskra Domažlice II 2+ goals
61%
Jiskra Domažlice II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Horní Bříza (draw refunded)
42%
Jiskra Domažlice II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horní Bříza at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Jiskra Domažlice II away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.55 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horní Bříza attack 0.87 + Jiskra Domažlice II defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.71

Jiskra Domažlice II attack 1.58 + Horní Bříza defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Horní Bříza scores more
33%
level
21%
Jiskra Domažlice II scores more
46%

Jiskra Domažlice II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jiskra Domažlice II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Horní Bříza 0–3 Jiskra Domažlice II

Jiskra Domažlice II beat Horní Bříza 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Fotbalově Hřiště Horní Bříza in Horní Bříza.