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JIPPO vs KuPS Akatemia — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2026

JIPPO
JIPPO
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
KuPS Akatemia
KuPS Akatemia
7/13/2022Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 8Joensuun Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

JIPPO60%
×Draw22%
KuPS Akatemia18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JIPPO
1.93
KuPS Akatemia
0.96

JIPPO creates 101% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 11 away

creates per match

JIPPO
1.95
KuPS Akatemia
1.18

allows per match

JIPPO
0.75
KuPS Akatemia
1.91

finishing

JIPPO+0.00on par
KuPS Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JIPPO ↓

KuPS Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

JIPPO or draw
82%
JIPPO or KuPS Akatemia
78%
Draw or KuPS Akatemia
40%

Winning margin

JIPPO wins by 2+
36%
KuPS Akatemia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

JIPPO 1+ goals
85%
JIPPO 2+ goals
57%
JIPPO 3+ goals
30%
KuPS Akatemia 1+ goals
62%
KuPS Akatemia 2+ goals
25%
KuPS Akatemia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

JIPPO (draw refunded)
77%
KuPS Akatemia (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JIPPO at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.75 · 44 matches

KuPS Akatemia away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JIPPO attack 1.95 + KuPS Akatemia defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.93

KuPS Akatemia attack 1.18 + JIPPO defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

JIPPO scores more
60%
level
22%
KuPS Akatemia scores more
18%

JIPPO at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "JIPPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JIPPO vs KuPS Akatemia

JIPPO beat KuPS Akatemia 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on July 13, 2022.

The match was played at Joensuun Keskuskenttä in Joensuu.