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JIPPO vs Gnistan — Ykkönen 2018

JIPPO
JIPPO
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Gnistan
Gnistan
6/30/2021YkkönenYkkönen · Round 6Mehtimäki tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

JIPPO34%
×Draw24%
Gnistan42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JIPPO
1.41
Gnistan
1.60

Gnistan creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 51 away

creates per match

JIPPO
1.00
Gnistan
1.57

allows per match

JIPPO
1.62
Gnistan
1.82

finishing

JIPPO+0.00on par
Gnistan+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JIPPO ↓

Gnistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

JIPPO or draw
58%
JIPPO or Gnistan
76%
Draw or Gnistan
66%

Winning margin

JIPPO wins by 2+
15%
Gnistan wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

JIPPO 1+ goals
76%
JIPPO 2+ goals
41%
JIPPO 3+ goals
17%
Gnistan 1+ goals
80%
Gnistan 2+ goals
47%
Gnistan 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

JIPPO (draw refunded)
45%
Gnistan (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JIPPO at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Gnistan away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.82 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JIPPO attack 1.00 + Gnistan defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.41

Gnistan attack 1.57 + JIPPO defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

JIPPO scores more
34%
level
24%
Gnistan scores more
42%

Gnistan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gnistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JIPPO vs Gnistan

Gnistan beat JIPPO 4-1 in Ykkönen on June 30, 2021.

The match was played at Mehtimäki tekonurmi in Joensuu.