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Gnistan vs JIPPO — Suomen Cup 2018

Gnistan
Gnistan
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
JIPPO
JIPPO
2/13/2021Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 3Tali halli tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gnistan39%
×Draw20%
JIPPO41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gnistan
2.10
JIPPO
2.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Gnistan
2.20
JIPPO
2.50

allows per match

Gnistan
1.80
JIPPO
2.00

finishing

Gnistan+0.00on par
JIPPO+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gnistan ↓

JIPPO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Gnistan or draw
59%
Gnistan or JIPPO
80%
Draw or JIPPO
61%

Winning margin

Gnistan wins by 2+
21%
JIPPO wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Gnistan 1+ goals
88%
Gnistan 2+ goals
62%
Gnistan 3+ goals
35%
JIPPO 1+ goals
88%
JIPPO 2+ goals
63%
JIPPO 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Gnistan (draw refunded)
49%
JIPPO (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gnistan at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

JIPPO away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gnistan attack 2.20 + JIPPO defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

JIPPO attack 2.50 + Gnistan defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gnistan scores more
39%
level
20%
JIPPO scores more
41%

JIPPO at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "JIPPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Gnistan 3–0 JIPPO

Gnistan beat JIPPO 3-0 in Suomen Cup on February 13, 2021.

The match was played at Tali halli tekonurmi in Helsinki.