Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jindřichův Hradec vs Internazionale U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Internazionale U19
Internazionale U19
11/27/2019UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 5Stadion Na Chvalech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec35%
×Draw22%
Internazionale U1943%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
1.75
Internazionale U19
1.95

Internazionale U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 20 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.75
Internazionale U19
1.65

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.25
Internazionale U19
1.75

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Internazionale U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Internazionale U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
57%
Jindřichův Hradec or Internazionale U19
78%
Draw or Internazionale U19
65%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
18%
Internazionale U19 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
83%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
52%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
25%
Internazionale U19 1+ goals
86%
Internazionale U19 2+ goals
58%
Internazionale U19 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
45%
Internazionale U19 (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Internazionale U19 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.75 + Internazionale U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.75

Internazionale U19 attack 1.65 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
35%
level
22%
Internazionale U19 scores more
43%

Internazionale U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Internazionale U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jindřichův Hradec 4 – 1 Internazionale U19

Jindřichův Hradec beat Internazionale U19 4-1 in UEFA Youth League on November 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Na Chvalech in Praha.