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Internazionale U19 vs Jindřichův Hradec — UEFA Youth League 2018

Internazionale U19
Internazionale U19
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
9/17/2019UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 1Stadio Ernesto Breda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Internazionale U1961%
×Draw18%
Jindřichův Hradec21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internazionale U19
2.57
Jindřichův Hradec
1.46

Internazionale U19 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 4 away

creates per match

Internazionale U19
2.14
Jindřichův Hradec
1.50

allows per match

Internazionale U19
1.41
Jindřichův Hradec
3.00

finishing

Internazionale U19+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internazionale U19 ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Internazionale U19 or draw
79%
Internazionale U19 or Jindřichův Hradec
82%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
39%

Winning margin

Internazionale U19 wins by 2+
40%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Internazionale U19 1+ goals
92%
Internazionale U19 2+ goals
72%
Internazionale U19 3+ goals
47%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
77%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
43%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Internazionale U19 (draw refunded)
75%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internazionale U19 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internazionale U19 attack 2.14 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.57

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.50 + Internazionale U19 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Internazionale U19 scores more
61%
level
18%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
21%

Internazionale U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Internazionale U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Internazionale U19 4 – 0 Jindřichův Hradec

Internazionale U19 beat Jindřichův Hradec 4-0 in UEFA Youth League on September 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Ernesto Breda in Sesto San Giovanni.