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Jindřichův Hradec vs Český lev - Union Beroun — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Český lev - Union Beroun
Český lev - Union Beroun
3/13/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 16Hřiště Vajgar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec54%
×Draw20%
Český lev - Union Beroun25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
2.23
Český lev - Union Beroun
1.48

Jindřichův Hradec creates 51% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 25 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.45
Český lev - Union Beroun
0.76

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.21
Český lev - Union Beroun
3.00

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Český lev - Union Beroun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
75%
Jindřichův Hradec or Český lev - Union Beroun
80%
Draw or Český lev - Union Beroun
46%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
33%
Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
89%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
65%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
38%
Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals
77%
Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals
43%
Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
68%
Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

Český lev - Union Beroun away — creates 0.76, concedes 3.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.45 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.23

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 0.76 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
54%
level
20%
Český lev - Union Beroun scores more
25%

Jindřichův Hradec at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Jindřichův Hradec 1–0 Český lev - Union Beroun

Jindřichův Hradec beat Český lev - Union Beroun 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Hřiště Vajgar in Jindřichův Hradec.