Český lev - Union Beroun 2–1 Jindřichův Hradec

Český lev - Union Beroun

FT

2 – 1

Jindřichův Hradec

8/22/2020

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 1Fotbalové hřiště Beroun

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Český lev - Union Beroun45%

×Draw22%

Jindřichův Hradec33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Český lev - Union BerounExpected goals in this matchJindřichův Hradec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.59

Český lev - Union Beroun

1.90

Jindřichův Hradec

1.59

Český lev - Union Beroun creates 19% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 56 away

1.29

creates per match

1.14

2.04

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Český lev - Union Beroun

1.29

Jindřichův Hradec

1.14

allows per match

Český lev - Union Beroun

2.04

Jindřichův Hradec

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Český lev - Union Beroun ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Český lev - Union Beroun or draw

67%

Český lev - Union Beroun or Jindřichův Hradec

78%

Draw or Jindřichův Hradec

55%

Winning margin

Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+

25%

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals

85%

Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals

56%

Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals

29%

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals

80%

Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals

47%

Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)

58%

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Český lev - Union Beroun at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.50 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 1.29 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.14 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Český lev - Union Beroun scores more

45%

level

22%

Jindřichův Hradec scores more

33%

Český lev - Union Beroun at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Český lev - Union Beroun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff