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Jindřichův Hradec vs České Budějovice II — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
CANC
15:00
České Budějovice II
České Budějovice II
5/8/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 23Hřiště Vajgar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec24%
×Draw20%
České Budějovice II56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
1.38
České Budějovice II
2.20

České Budějovice II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 26 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.45
České Budějovice II
2.19

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.21
České Budějovice II
1.31

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
České Budějovice II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

České Budějovice II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
44%
Jindřichův Hradec or České Budějovice II
80%
Draw or České Budějovice II
76%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
10%
České Budějovice II wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
75%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
40%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
16%
České Budějovice II 1+ goals
89%
České Budějovice II 2+ goals
64%
České Budějovice II 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
30%
České Budějovice II (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

České Budějovice II away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.45 + České Budějovice II defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

České Budějovice II attack 2.19 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
24%
level
20%
České Budějovice II scores more
56%

České Budějovice II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "České Budějovice II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Jindřichův Hradec host České Budějovice II

May 8, 2021: Jindřichův Hradec take on České Budějovice II in 4. liga - Divizie A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Jindřichův Hradec host České Budějovice II at Hřiště Vajgar.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.