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České Budějovice II vs Jindřichův Hradec — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

České Budějovice II
České Budějovice II
CANC
09:30
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
2/6/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 8SCM Složiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

České Budějovice II76%
×Draw14%
Jindřichův Hradec10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

České Budějovice II
2.90
Jindřichův Hradec
0.96

České Budějovice II creates 202% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 56 away

creates per match

České Budějovice II
3.30
Jindřichův Hradec
1.14

allows per match

České Budějovice II
0.78
Jindřichův Hradec
2.50

finishing

České Budějovice II+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice II ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

České Budějovice II or draw
90%
České Budějovice II or Jindřichův Hradec
86%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
24%

Winning margin

České Budějovice II wins by 2+
56%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

České Budějovice II 1+ goals
94%
České Budějovice II 2+ goals
78%
České Budějovice II 3+ goals
54%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
62%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
25%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice II (draw refunded)
89%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice II at home — creates 3.30, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.50 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice II attack 3.30 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.90

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.14 + České Budějovice II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

České Budějovice II scores more
76%
level
14%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
10%

České Budějovice II at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "České Budějovice II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

České Budějovice II vs Jindřichův Hradec — Match Preview

České Budějovice II face Jindřichův Hradec on February 6, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

České Budějovice II host Jindřichův Hradec at SCM Složiště.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.