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Jindřichův Hradec vs Borussia Dortmund U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Borussia Dortmund U19
Borussia Dortmund U19
10/2/2019UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2Stadion Na Chvalech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec35%
×Draw21%
Borussia Dortmund U1943%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
1.79
Borussia Dortmund U19
2.00

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 23 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.75
Borussia Dortmund U19
1.74

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.25
Borussia Dortmund U19
1.83

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Borussia Dortmund U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
57%
Jindřichův Hradec or Borussia Dortmund U19
79%
Draw or Borussia Dortmund U19
65%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
18%
Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
83%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
53%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
26%
Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals
86%
Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals
59%
Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
45%
Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Borussia Dortmund U19 away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.75 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.79

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 1.74 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
35%
level
21%
Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more
43%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jindřichův Hradec vs Borussia Dortmund U19

Jindřichův Hradec beat Borussia Dortmund U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Na Chvalech in Praha.