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Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Jindřichův Hradec — UEFA Youth League 2018

Borussia Dortmund U19
Borussia Dortmund U19
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
12/10/2019UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Borussia Dortmund U1957%
×Draw19%
Jindřichův Hradec24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borussia Dortmund U19
2.42
Jindřichův Hradec
1.52

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 4 away

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund U19
1.84
Jindřichův Hradec
1.50

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund U19
1.53
Jindřichův Hradec
3.00

finishing

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund U19 ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund U19 or draw
76%
Borussia Dortmund U19 or Jindřichův Hradec
81%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
43%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+
36%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals
91%
Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals
69%
Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals
43%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
78%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
45%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)
71%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund U19 at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 1.84 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.50 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more
57%
level
19%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
24%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Jindřichův Hradec

Borussia Dortmund U19 beat Jindřichův Hradec 5-1 in UEFA Youth League on December 10, 2019.

The match was played at Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei in Dortmund.