Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jindřichův Hradec vs Barcelona U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Barcelona U19
Barcelona U19
10/23/2019UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3Stadion Na Chvalech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec31%
×Draw21%
Barcelona U1948%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
1.63
Barcelona U19
2.07

Barcelona U19 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 18 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.75
Barcelona U19
1.89

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.25
Barcelona U19
1.50

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Barcelona U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Barcelona U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
52%
Jindřichův Hradec or Barcelona U19
79%
Draw or Barcelona U19
69%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
15%
Barcelona U19 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
80%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
48%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
22%
Barcelona U19 1+ goals
87%
Barcelona U19 2+ goals
61%
Barcelona U19 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
39%
Barcelona U19 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Barcelona U19 away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.75 + Barcelona U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Barcelona U19 attack 1.89 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
31%
level
21%
Barcelona U19 scores more
48%

Barcelona U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Barcelona U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jindřichův Hradec vs Barcelona U19

Barcelona U19 beat Jindřichův Hradec 4-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Na Chvalech in Praha.