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Barcelona U19 vs Jindřichův Hradec — UEFA Youth League 2018

Barcelona U19
Barcelona U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
11/5/2019UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4Estadi Johan Cruyff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Barcelona U1956%
×Draw20%
Jindřichův Hradec24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona U19
2.35
Jindřichův Hradec
1.49

Barcelona U19 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 4 away

creates per match

Barcelona U19
1.71
Jindřichův Hradec
1.50

allows per match

Barcelona U19
1.48
Jindřichův Hradec
3.00

finishing

Barcelona U19+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona U19 ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Barcelona U19 or draw
76%
Barcelona U19 or Jindřichův Hradec
80%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
44%

Winning margin

Barcelona U19 wins by 2+
35%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Barcelona U19 1+ goals
90%
Barcelona U19 2+ goals
68%
Barcelona U19 3+ goals
41%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
77%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
44%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Barcelona U19 (draw refunded)
70%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona U19 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.48 · 21 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona U19 attack 1.71 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.50 + Barcelona U19 defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Barcelona U19 scores more
56%
level
20%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
24%

Barcelona U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Barcelona U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barcelona U19 vs Jindřichův Hradec

Jindřichův Hradec beat Barcelona U19 3-2 in UEFA Youth League on November 5, 2019.

The match was played at Estadi Johan Cruyff in Sant Joan Despí.