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Jindřichův Hradec vs Aritma Praha — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Aritma Praha
Aritma Praha
4/27/20254. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 23Hřiště Vajgar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec23%
×Draw21%
Aritma Praha56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
1.27
Aritma Praha
2.09

Aritma Praha creates 65% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 45 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.45
Aritma Praha
1.98

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.21
Aritma Praha
1.09

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Aritma Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Aritma Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
44%
Jindřichův Hradec or Aritma Praha
79%
Draw or Aritma Praha
77%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
9%
Aritma Praha wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
72%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
36%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
14%
Aritma Praha 1+ goals
88%
Aritma Praha 2+ goals
62%
Aritma Praha 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
29%
Aritma Praha (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

Aritma Praha away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.09 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.45 + Aritma Praha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Aritma Praha attack 1.98 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
23%
level
21%
Aritma Praha scores more
56%

Aritma Praha at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Aritma Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jindřichův Hradec vs Aritma Praha

Aritma Praha beat Jindřichův Hradec 6-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Hřiště Vajgar in Jindřichův Hradec.