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Aritma Praha vs Jindřichův Hradec — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Aritma Praha
Aritma Praha
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
4/13/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 22Areál Aritmy UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Aritma Praha68%
×Draw18%
Jindřichův Hradec13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aritma Praha
2.31
Jindřichův Hradec
0.91

Aritma Praha creates 154% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 56 away

creates per match

Aritma Praha
2.13
Jindřichův Hradec
1.14

allows per match

Aritma Praha
0.67
Jindřichův Hradec
2.50

finishing

Aritma Praha+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aritma Praha ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Aritma Praha or draw
87%
Aritma Praha or Jindřichův Hradec
82%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
32%

Winning margin

Aritma Praha wins by 2+
45%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Aritma Praha 1+ goals
90%
Aritma Praha 2+ goals
67%
Aritma Praha 3+ goals
40%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
60%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
23%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Aritma Praha (draw refunded)
84%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aritma Praha at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.50 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aritma Praha attack 2.13 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.31

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.14 + Aritma Praha defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Aritma Praha scores more
68%
level
18%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
13%

Aritma Praha at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Aritma Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Aritma Praha 4–0 Jindřichův Hradec

Aritma Praha beat Jindřichův Hradec 4-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Areál Aritmy UMT in Praha.