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Jincheon vs Gijang United — K4 League 2026

Jincheon
Jincheon
FT
2 – 0
Gijang United
Gijang United
6/7/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Jincheon65%
×Draw21%
Gijang United14%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jincheon
1.94
Gijang United
0.76

Jincheon creates 155% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Jincheon
1.88
Gijang United
0.89

allows per match

Jincheon
0.63
Gijang United
2.00

finishing

Jincheon+0.00on par
Gijang United+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jincheon ↓

Gijang United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jincheon or draw
86%
Jincheon or Gijang United
79%
Draw or Gijang United
35%

Winning margin

Jincheon wins by 2+
40%
Gijang United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jincheon 1+ goals
86%
Jincheon 2+ goals
58%
Jincheon 3+ goals
30%
Gijang United 1+ goals
53%
Gijang United 2+ goals
18%
Gijang United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Jincheon (draw refunded)
82%
Gijang United (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jincheon at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Gijang United away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jincheon attack 1.88 + Gijang United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Gijang United attack 0.89 + Jincheon defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Jincheon scores more
65%
level
21%
Gijang United scores more
14%

Jincheon at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Jincheon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K4 League: Jincheon 2–0 Gijang United

Jincheon beat Gijang United 2-0 in K4 League on June 7, 2026.