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Gijang United vs Jincheon — K4 League 2026

Gijang United
Gijang United
FT
0 – 4
Jincheon
Jincheon
3/8/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gijang United30%
×Draw23%
Jincheon46%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gijang United
1.41
Jincheon
1.79

Jincheon creates 27% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Gijang United
1.57
Jincheon
2.00

allows per match

Gijang United
1.57
Jincheon
1.25

finishing

Gijang United+0.00on par
Jincheon+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gijang United ↓

Jincheon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Gijang United or draw
54%
Gijang United or Jincheon
77%
Draw or Jincheon
70%

Winning margin

Gijang United wins by 2+
14%
Jincheon wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Gijang United 1+ goals
76%
Gijang United 2+ goals
41%
Gijang United 3+ goals
17%
Jincheon 1+ goals
83%
Jincheon 2+ goals
53%
Jincheon 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Gijang United (draw refunded)
40%
Jincheon (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gijang United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Jincheon away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gijang United attack 1.57 + Jincheon defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Jincheon attack 2.00 + Gijang United defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gijang United scores more
30%
level
23%
Jincheon scores more
46%

Jincheon at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jincheon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K4 League: Gijang United 0–4 Jincheon

Jincheon beat Gijang United 4-0 in K4 League on March 8, 2026.