Jinan Xingzhou 2–0 Hubei Chufeng Heli

Jinan Xingzhou

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Hubei Chufeng Heli

8/12/2022

League Two · Round 9Dalian Youth Football Training Base No. 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Jinan Xingzhou62%

×Draw22%

Hubei Chufeng Heli16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jinan XingzhouExpected goals in this matchHubei Chufeng Heli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.80

Jinan Xingzhou

1.83

Hubei Chufeng Heli

0.80

Jinan Xingzhou creates 129% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 56 away

2.25

creates per match

1.09

0.50

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Jinan Xingzhou

2.25

Hubei Chufeng Heli

1.09

allows per match

Jinan Xingzhou

0.50

Hubei Chufeng Heli

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par

Hubei Chufeng Heli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jinan Xingzhou ↓

Hubei Chufeng Heli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Jinan Xingzhou or draw

84%

Jinan Xingzhou or Hubei Chufeng Heli

78%

Draw or Hubei Chufeng Heli

38%

Winning margin

Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+

36%

Hubei Chufeng Heli wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals

84%

Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals

54%

Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals

28%

Hubei Chufeng Heli 1+ goals

55%

Hubei Chufeng Heli 2+ goals

19%

Hubei Chufeng Heli 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)

79%

Hubei Chufeng Heli (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jinan Xingzhou at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Hubei Chufeng Heli away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jinan Xingzhou attack 2.25 + Hubei Chufeng Heli defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.83

Hubei Chufeng Heli attack 1.09 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Jinan Xingzhou scores more

62%

level

22%

Hubei Chufeng Heli scores more

16%

Jinan Xingzhou at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Jinan Xingzhou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff