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Hubei Chufeng Heli vs Jinan Xingzhou — League Two 2022

Hubei Chufeng Heli
Hubei Chufeng Heli
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Jinan Xingzhou
Jinan Xingzhou
7/19/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 4Dalian Puwan Outfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hubei Chufeng Heli25%
×Draw28%
Jinan Xingzhou47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hubei Chufeng Heli
0.92
Jinan Xingzhou
1.37

Jinan Xingzhou creates 49% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 7 away

creates per match

Hubei Chufeng Heli
1.13
Jinan Xingzhou
1.57

allows per match

Hubei Chufeng Heli
1.17
Jinan Xingzhou
0.71

finishing

Hubei Chufeng Heli+0.00on par
Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hubei Chufeng Heli ↓

Jinan Xingzhou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hubei Chufeng Heli or draw
53%
Hubei Chufeng Heli or Jinan Xingzhou
72%
Draw or Jinan Xingzhou
75%

Winning margin

Hubei Chufeng Heli wins by 2+
9%
Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Hubei Chufeng Heli 1+ goals
60%
Hubei Chufeng Heli 2+ goals
23%
Hubei Chufeng Heli 3+ goals
7%
Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals
75%
Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals
40%
Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hubei Chufeng Heli (draw refunded)
35%
Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hubei Chufeng Heli at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.17 · 54 matches

Jinan Xingzhou away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hubei Chufeng Heli attack 1.13 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.57 + Hubei Chufeng Heli defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hubei Chufeng Heli scores more
25%
level
28%
Jinan Xingzhou scores more
47%

Jinan Xingzhou at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jinan Xingzhou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Hubei Chufeng Heli 0–1 Jinan Xingzhou

Jinan Xingzhou beat Hubei Chufeng Heli 1-0 in League Two on July 19, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Puwan Outfield in Dalian.