Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jinan Xingzhou vs Guangxi Baoyun — League One 2018

Jinan Xingzhou
Jinan Xingzhou
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guangxi Baoyun
Guangxi Baoyun
7/29/2023League OneLeague One · Round 16Shandong Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jinan Xingzhou44%
×Draw29%
Guangxi Baoyun27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jinan Xingzhou
1.23
Guangxi Baoyun
0.90

Jinan Xingzhou creates 37% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 63 away

creates per match

Jinan Xingzhou
1.20
Guangxi Baoyun
0.86

allows per match

Jinan Xingzhou
0.93
Guangxi Baoyun
1.25

finishing

Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par
Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jinan Xingzhou ↓

Guangxi Baoyun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jinan Xingzhou or draw
73%
Jinan Xingzhou or Guangxi Baoyun
71%
Draw or Guangxi Baoyun
56%

Winning margin

Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+
19%
Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals
71%
Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals
35%
Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals
13%
Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals
59%
Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals
23%
Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)
62%
Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jinan Xingzhou at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Guangxi Baoyun away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.20 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Guangxi Baoyun attack 0.86 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jinan Xingzhou scores more
44%
level
29%
Guangxi Baoyun scores more
27%

Jinan Xingzhou at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jinan Xingzhou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Jinan Xingzhou 0–0 Guangxi Baoyun

Jinan Xingzhou and Guangxi Baoyun drew 0-0 in League One on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Shandong Provincial Stadium in Ji'nan.