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Guangxi Baoyun vs Jinan Xingzhou — League One 2018

Guangxi Baoyun
Guangxi Baoyun
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Jinan Xingzhou
Jinan Xingzhou
4/22/2023League OneLeague One · Round 1Pingguo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guangxi Baoyun40%
×Draw28%
Jinan Xingzhou31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangxi Baoyun
1.23
Jinan Xingzhou
1.04

Guangxi Baoyun creates 18% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 15 away

creates per match

Guangxi Baoyun
1.32
Jinan Xingzhou
1.07

allows per match

Guangxi Baoyun
1.00
Jinan Xingzhou
1.13

finishing

Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par
Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Baoyun ↓

Jinan Xingzhou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Guangxi Baoyun or draw
69%
Guangxi Baoyun or Jinan Xingzhou
72%
Draw or Jinan Xingzhou
60%

Winning margin

Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+
18%
Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals
71%
Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals
35%
Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals
13%
Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals
65%
Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals
28%
Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)
57%
Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Baoyun at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

Jinan Xingzhou away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Baoyun attack 1.32 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.07 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guangxi Baoyun scores more
40%
level
28%
Jinan Xingzhou scores more
31%

Guangxi Baoyun at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Guangxi Baoyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Guangxi Baoyun 3–0 Jinan Xingzhou

Guangxi Baoyun beat Jinan Xingzhou 3-0 in League One on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Pingguo Stadium in Pingguo.