Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jinan Xingzhou vs Dantong Hantong — League One 2018

Jinan Xingzhou
Jinan Xingzhou
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dantong Hantong
Dantong Hantong
7/9/2023League OneLeague One · Round 13Shandong Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jinan Xingzhou47%
×Draw30%
Dantong Hantong23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jinan Xingzhou
1.23
Dantong Hantong
0.77

Jinan Xingzhou creates 60% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Jinan Xingzhou
1.20
Dantong Hantong
0.60

allows per match

Jinan Xingzhou
0.93
Dantong Hantong
1.27

finishing

Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par
Dantong Hantong+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jinan Xingzhou ↓

Dantong Hantong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Jinan Xingzhou or draw
77%
Jinan Xingzhou or Dantong Hantong
70%
Draw or Dantong Hantong
53%

Winning margin

Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+
21%
Dantong Hantong wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals
71%
Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals
35%
Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals
13%
Dantong Hantong 1+ goals
54%
Dantong Hantong 2+ goals
18%
Dantong Hantong 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)
67%
Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jinan Xingzhou at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Dantong Hantong away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.20 + Dantong Hantong defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Dantong Hantong attack 0.60 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jinan Xingzhou scores more
47%
level
30%
Dantong Hantong scores more
23%

Jinan Xingzhou at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jinan Xingzhou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Jinan Xingzhou 0–1 Dantong Hantong

Dantong Hantong beat Jinan Xingzhou 1-0 in League One on July 9, 2023.

The match was played at Shandong Provincial Stadium in Ji'nan.