Dantong Hantong 1–1 Jinan Xingzhou: Result & Stats

Dantong Hantong

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jinan Xingzhou

10/21/2023

League One · Round 28Huludao City Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dantong Hantong37%

×Draw28%

Jinan Xingzhou35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dantong HantongExpected goals in this matchJinan Xingzhou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.17

Dantong Hantong

1.20

Jinan Xingzhou

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.27

creates per match

1.07

1.27

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Dantong Hantong

1.27

Jinan Xingzhou

1.07

allows per match

Dantong Hantong

1.27

Jinan Xingzhou

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dantong Hantong+0.00on par

Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dantong Hantong ↓

Jinan Xingzhou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dantong Hantong or draw

65%

Dantong Hantong or Jinan Xingzhou

72%

Draw or Jinan Xingzhou

63%

Winning margin

Dantong Hantong wins by 2+

16%

Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dantong Hantong 1+ goals

70%

Dantong Hantong 2+ goals

34%

Dantong Hantong 3+ goals

12%

Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals

69%

Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals

33%

Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)

51%

Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dantong Hantong at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Jinan Xingzhou away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dantong Hantong attack 1.27 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.20

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.07 + Dantong Hantong defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dantong Hantong scores more

37%

level

28%

Jinan Xingzhou scores more

35%

Dantong Hantong at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dantong Hantong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff