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Jimma Aba Jifar vs Hadiya Hosaena — Premier League 2019

Jimma Aba Jifar
Jimma Aba Jifar
CANC
00:00
Hadiya Hosaena
Hadiya Hosaena
6/14/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30Jimma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Jimma Aba Jifar27%
×Draw30%
Hadiya Hosaena43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jimma Aba Jifar
0.84
Hadiya Hosaena
1.16

Hadiya Hosaena creates 38% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 102 away

creates per match

Jimma Aba Jifar
0.78
Hadiya Hosaena
0.87

allows per match

Jimma Aba Jifar
1.44
Hadiya Hosaena
0.90

finishing

Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par
Hadiya Hosaena+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jimma Aba Jifar ↓

Hadiya Hosaena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Jimma Aba Jifar or draw
57%
Jimma Aba Jifar or Hadiya Hosaena
70%
Draw or Hadiya Hosaena
73%

Winning margin

Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+
9%
Hadiya Hosaena wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals
57%
Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals
21%
Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals
5%
Hadiya Hosaena 1+ goals
69%
Hadiya Hosaena 2+ goals
32%
Hadiya Hosaena 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)
38%
Hadiya Hosaena (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jimma Aba Jifar at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 36 matches

Hadiya Hosaena away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.90 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.78 + Hadiya Hosaena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.84

Hadiya Hosaena attack 0.87 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jimma Aba Jifar scores more
27%
level
30%
Hadiya Hosaena scores more
43%

Hadiya Hosaena at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hadiya Hosaena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jimma Aba Jifar vs Hadiya Hosaena — Match Preview

Jimma Aba Jifar face Hadiya Hosaena on June 14, 2020 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Jimma Aba Jifar host Hadiya Hosaena at Jimma Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.