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Hadiya Hosaena vs Jimma Aba Jifar — Premier League 2019

Hadiya Hosaena
Hadiya Hosaena
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Jimma Aba Jifar
Jimma Aba Jifar
2/3/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Hadiya Hosaena43%
×Draw30%
Jimma Aba Jifar28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hadiya Hosaena
1.19
Jimma Aba Jifar
0.90

Hadiya Hosaena creates 32% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 35 away

creates per match

Hadiya Hosaena
1.03
Jimma Aba Jifar
0.71

allows per match

Hadiya Hosaena
1.09
Jimma Aba Jifar
1.34

finishing

Hadiya Hosaena+0.00on par
Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hadiya Hosaena ↓

Jimma Aba Jifar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hadiya Hosaena or draw
72%
Hadiya Hosaena or Jimma Aba Jifar
70%
Draw or Jimma Aba Jifar
57%

Winning margin

Hadiya Hosaena wins by 2+
18%
Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hadiya Hosaena 1+ goals
70%
Hadiya Hosaena 2+ goals
33%
Hadiya Hosaena 3+ goals
12%
Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals
59%
Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals
23%
Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hadiya Hosaena (draw refunded)
61%
Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hadiya Hosaena at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 101 matches

Jimma Aba Jifar away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hadiya Hosaena attack 1.03 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.71 + Hadiya Hosaena defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hadiya Hosaena scores more
43%
level
30%
Jimma Aba Jifar scores more
28%

Hadiya Hosaena at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hadiya Hosaena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hadiya Hosaena vs Jimma Aba Jifar

Jimma Aba Jifar beat Hadiya Hosaena 4-2 in Premier League on February 3, 2022.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.