Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jimma Aba Jifar vs Fasil Ketema — Premier League 2019

Jimma Aba Jifar
Jimma Aba Jifar
FT
1 – 4
Fasil Ketema
Fasil Ketema
12/24/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Addis Ababa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Jimma Aba Jifar24%
×Draw29%
Fasil Ketema46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jimma Aba Jifar
0.83
Fasil Ketema
1.26

Fasil Ketema creates 52% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 102 away

creates per match

Jimma Aba Jifar
0.78
Fasil Ketema
1.08

allows per match

Jimma Aba Jifar
1.44
Fasil Ketema
0.89

finishing

Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par
Fasil Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jimma Aba Jifar ↓

Fasil Ketema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jimma Aba Jifar or draw
54%
Jimma Aba Jifar or Fasil Ketema
71%
Draw or Fasil Ketema
76%

Winning margin

Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+
8%
Fasil Ketema wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals
56%
Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals
20%
Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals
5%
Fasil Ketema 1+ goals
72%
Fasil Ketema 2+ goals
36%
Fasil Ketema 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)
35%
Fasil Ketema (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jimma Aba Jifar at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 36 matches

Fasil Ketema away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.89 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.78 + Fasil Ketema defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.83

Fasil Ketema attack 1.08 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jimma Aba Jifar scores more
24%
level
29%
Fasil Ketema scores more
46%

Fasil Ketema at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fasil Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jimma Aba Jifar vs Fasil Ketema

Fasil Ketema beat Jimma Aba Jifar 4-1 in Premier League on December 24, 2020.

The match was played at Addis Ababa Stadium in Addis Abeba.