Fasil Ketema 4–0 Jimma Aba Jifar: Result & Stats

Fasil Ketema

FT

4 – 0

Jimma Aba Jifar

10/30/2021

Premier League · Round 3Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Fasil Ketema50%

×Draw29%

Jimma Aba Jifar21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fasil KetemaExpected goals in this matchJimma Aba Jifar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.74

Fasil Ketema

1.31

Jimma Aba Jifar

0.74

Fasil Ketema creates 77% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 35 away

1.28

creates per match

0.71

0.78

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Fasil Ketema

1.28

Jimma Aba Jifar

0.71

allows per match

Fasil Ketema

0.78

Jimma Aba Jifar

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fasil Ketema+0.00on par

Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fasil Ketema ↓

Jimma Aba Jifar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Fasil Ketema or draw

79%

Fasil Ketema or Jimma Aba Jifar

71%

Draw or Jimma Aba Jifar

50%

Winning margin

Fasil Ketema wins by 2+

24%

Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Fasil Ketema 1+ goals

73%

Fasil Ketema 2+ goals

38%

Fasil Ketema 3+ goals

14%

Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals

52%

Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals

17%

Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Fasil Ketema (draw refunded)

70%

Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fasil Ketema at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.78 · 101 matches

Jimma Aba Jifar away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fasil Ketema attack 1.28 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.71 + Fasil Ketema defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fasil Ketema scores more

50%

level

29%

Jimma Aba Jifar scores more

21%

Fasil Ketema at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fasil Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff