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Jimma Aba Jifar vs Dire Dawa Kenema — Premier League 2019

Jimma Aba Jifar
Jimma Aba Jifar
FT
1 – 3
Dire Dawa Kenema
Dire Dawa Kenema
11/23/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Jimma Aba Jifar31%
×Draw29%
Dire Dawa Kenema41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jimma Aba Jifar
1.01
Dire Dawa Kenema
1.21

Dire Dawa Kenema creates 20% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 100 away

creates per match

Jimma Aba Jifar
0.78
Dire Dawa Kenema
0.99

allows per match

Jimma Aba Jifar
1.44
Dire Dawa Kenema
1.24

finishing

Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par
Dire Dawa Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jimma Aba Jifar ↓

Dire Dawa Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Jimma Aba Jifar or draw
59%
Jimma Aba Jifar or Dire Dawa Kenema
71%
Draw or Dire Dawa Kenema
69%

Winning margin

Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+
11%
Dire Dawa Kenema wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals
64%
Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals
27%
Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals
8%
Dire Dawa Kenema 1+ goals
70%
Dire Dawa Kenema 2+ goals
34%
Dire Dawa Kenema 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)
43%
Dire Dawa Kenema (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jimma Aba Jifar at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 36 matches

Dire Dawa Kenema away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.78 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.01

Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.99 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jimma Aba Jifar scores more
31%
level
29%
Dire Dawa Kenema scores more
41%

Dire Dawa Kenema at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dire Dawa Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jimma Aba Jifar vs Dire Dawa Kenema

Dire Dawa Kenema beat Jimma Aba Jifar 3-1 in Premier League on November 23, 2021.

The match was played at Hawassa Stadium in Hawassa.