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Dire Dawa Kenema vs Jimma Aba Jifar — Premier League 2019

Dire Dawa Kenema
Dire Dawa Kenema
FT
2 – 0
Jimma Aba Jifar
Jimma Aba Jifar
12/29/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Addis Ababa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Dire Dawa Kenema39%
×Draw29%
Jimma Aba Jifar32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dire Dawa Kenema
1.16
Jimma Aba Jifar
1.02

Dire Dawa Kenema creates 14% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 35 away

creates per match

Dire Dawa Kenema
0.97
Jimma Aba Jifar
0.71

allows per match

Dire Dawa Kenema
1.34
Jimma Aba Jifar
1.34

finishing

Dire Dawa Kenema+0.00on par
Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dire Dawa Kenema ↓

Jimma Aba Jifar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dire Dawa Kenema or draw
68%
Dire Dawa Kenema or Jimma Aba Jifar
71%
Draw or Jimma Aba Jifar
61%

Winning margin

Dire Dawa Kenema wins by 2+
16%
Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dire Dawa Kenema 1+ goals
69%
Dire Dawa Kenema 2+ goals
32%
Dire Dawa Kenema 3+ goals
11%
Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals
64%
Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals
27%
Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dire Dawa Kenema (draw refunded)
55%
Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dire Dawa Kenema at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 102 matches

Jimma Aba Jifar away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.97 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.71 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dire Dawa Kenema scores more
39%
level
29%
Jimma Aba Jifar scores more
32%

Dire Dawa Kenema at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dire Dawa Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dire Dawa Kenema vs Jimma Aba Jifar

Dire Dawa Kenema beat Jimma Aba Jifar 2-0 in Premier League on December 29, 2020.

The match was played at Addis Ababa Stadium in Addis Abeba.