Jimma Aba Jifar 0–0 Bahardar: Result & Stats

Jimma Aba Jifar

FT

0 – 0

Bahardar

5/17/2021

Premier League · Round 24Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Jimma Aba Jifar23%

×Draw29%

Bahardar48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jimma Aba JifarExpected goals in this matchBahardar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

1.30

Jimma Aba Jifar

0.81

Bahardar

1.30

Bahardar creates 60% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 103 away

0.78

creates per match

1.16

1.44

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Jimma Aba Jifar

0.78

Bahardar

1.16

allows per match

Jimma Aba Jifar

1.44

Bahardar

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par

Bahardar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jimma Aba Jifar ↓

Bahardar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Jimma Aba Jifar or draw

52%

Jimma Aba Jifar or Bahardar

71%

Draw or Bahardar

77%

Winning margin

Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+

7%

Bahardar wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals

56%

Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals

19%

Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals

5%

Bahardar 1+ goals

73%

Bahardar 2+ goals

37%

Bahardar 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)

33%

Bahardar (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jimma Aba Jifar at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 36 matches

Bahardar away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.78 + Bahardar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Bahardar attack 1.16 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jimma Aba Jifar scores more

23%

level

29%

Bahardar scores more

48%

Bahardar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bahardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff