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Bahardar vs Jimma Aba Jifar — Premier League 2019

Bahardar
Bahardar
FT
1 – 0
Jimma Aba Jifar
Jimma Aba Jifar
3/8/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Bahir Dar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Bahardar46%
×Draw30%
Jimma Aba Jifar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahardar
1.23
Jimma Aba Jifar
0.82

Bahardar creates 50% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 35 away

creates per match

Bahardar
1.12
Jimma Aba Jifar
0.71

allows per match

Bahardar
0.94
Jimma Aba Jifar
1.34

finishing

Bahardar+0.00on par
Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahardar ↓

Jimma Aba Jifar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bahardar or draw
75%
Bahardar or Jimma Aba Jifar
70%
Draw or Jimma Aba Jifar
54%

Winning margin

Bahardar wins by 2+
20%
Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bahardar 1+ goals
71%
Bahardar 2+ goals
35%
Bahardar 3+ goals
13%
Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals
56%
Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals
20%
Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bahardar (draw refunded)
65%
Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahardar at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Jimma Aba Jifar away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahardar attack 1.12 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.71 + Bahardar defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bahardar scores more
46%
level
30%
Jimma Aba Jifar scores more
25%

Bahardar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bahardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bahardar 1–0 Jimma Aba Jifar

Bahardar beat Jimma Aba Jifar 1-0 in Premier League on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Bahir Dar Stadium in Bahir Dar.