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Jimma Aba Jifar vs Awassa Kenema — Premier League 2019

Jimma Aba Jifar
Jimma Aba Jifar
CANC
00:00
Awassa Kenema
Awassa Kenema
5/31/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Jimma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Jimma Aba Jifar29%
×Draw28%
Awassa Kenema43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jimma Aba Jifar
1.00
Awassa Kenema
1.29

Awassa Kenema creates 29% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 100 away

creates per match

Jimma Aba Jifar
0.78
Awassa Kenema
1.14

allows per match

Jimma Aba Jifar
1.44
Awassa Kenema
1.22

finishing

Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par
Awassa Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jimma Aba Jifar ↓

Awassa Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Jimma Aba Jifar or draw
57%
Jimma Aba Jifar or Awassa Kenema
72%
Draw or Awassa Kenema
71%

Winning margin

Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+
11%
Awassa Kenema wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals
63%
Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals
26%
Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals
8%
Awassa Kenema 1+ goals
72%
Awassa Kenema 2+ goals
37%
Awassa Kenema 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)
40%
Awassa Kenema (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jimma Aba Jifar at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 36 matches

Awassa Kenema away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.22 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.78 + Awassa Kenema defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.00

Awassa Kenema attack 1.14 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jimma Aba Jifar scores more
29%
level
28%
Awassa Kenema scores more
43%

Awassa Kenema at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Awassa Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jimma Aba Jifar vs Awassa Kenema — Match Preview

Jimma Aba Jifar face Awassa Kenema on May 31, 2020 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Jimma Aba Jifar host Awassa Kenema at Jimma Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.