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Awassa Kenema vs Jimma Aba Jifar — Premier League 2019

Awassa Kenema
Awassa Kenema
FT
1 – 0
Jimma Aba Jifar
Jimma Aba Jifar
10/17/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Awassa Kenema46%
×Draw28%
Jimma Aba Jifar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Awassa Kenema
1.29
Jimma Aba Jifar
0.90

Awassa Kenema creates 43% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 35 away

creates per match

Awassa Kenema
1.23
Jimma Aba Jifar
0.71

allows per match

Awassa Kenema
1.09
Jimma Aba Jifar
1.34

finishing

Awassa Kenema+0.00on par
Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Awassa Kenema ↓

Jimma Aba Jifar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Awassa Kenema or draw
74%
Awassa Kenema or Jimma Aba Jifar
72%
Draw or Jimma Aba Jifar
54%

Winning margin

Awassa Kenema wins by 2+
21%
Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Awassa Kenema 1+ goals
72%
Awassa Kenema 2+ goals
37%
Awassa Kenema 3+ goals
14%
Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals
59%
Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals
23%
Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Awassa Kenema (draw refunded)
64%
Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Awassa Kenema at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.09 · 102 matches

Jimma Aba Jifar away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Awassa Kenema attack 1.23 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.71 + Awassa Kenema defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Awassa Kenema scores more
46%
level
28%
Jimma Aba Jifar scores more
26%

Awassa Kenema at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Awassa Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Awassa Kenema 1–0 Jimma Aba Jifar

Awassa Kenema beat Jimma Aba Jifar 1-0 in Premier League on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Hawassa Stadium in Hawassa.