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Jimma Aba Jifar vs Arba Minch Kenema — Premier League 2019

Jimma Aba Jifar
Jimma Aba Jifar
FT
2 – 1
Arba Minch Kenema
Arba Minch Kenema
5/7/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Bahir Dar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Jimma Aba Jifar27%
×Draw29%
Arba Minch Kenema44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jimma Aba Jifar
0.88
Arba Minch Kenema
1.22

Arba Minch Kenema creates 39% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 66 away

creates per match

Jimma Aba Jifar
0.78
Arba Minch Kenema
1.00

allows per match

Jimma Aba Jifar
1.44
Arba Minch Kenema
0.98

finishing

Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par
Arba Minch Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jimma Aba Jifar ↓

Arba Minch Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jimma Aba Jifar or draw
56%
Jimma Aba Jifar or Arba Minch Kenema
71%
Draw or Arba Minch Kenema
73%

Winning margin

Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+
9%
Arba Minch Kenema wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals
59%
Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals
22%
Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals
6%
Arba Minch Kenema 1+ goals
70%
Arba Minch Kenema 2+ goals
34%
Arba Minch Kenema 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)
38%
Arba Minch Kenema (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jimma Aba Jifar at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 36 matches

Arba Minch Kenema away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.78 + Arba Minch Kenema defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.88

Arba Minch Kenema attack 1.00 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jimma Aba Jifar scores more
27%
level
29%
Arba Minch Kenema scores more
44%

Arba Minch Kenema at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Arba Minch Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jimma Aba Jifar vs Arba Minch Kenema

Jimma Aba Jifar beat Arba Minch Kenema 2-1 in Premier League on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Bahir Dar Stadium in Bahir Dar.