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Arba Minch Kenema vs Jimma Aba Jifar — Premier League 2019

Arba Minch Kenema
Arba Minch Kenema
FT
0 – 0
Jimma Aba Jifar
Jimma Aba Jifar
12/12/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Arba Minch Kenema40%
×Draw30%
Jimma Aba Jifar29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arba Minch Kenema
1.13
Jimma Aba Jifar
0.92

Arba Minch Kenema creates 23% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 35 away

creates per match

Arba Minch Kenema
0.91
Jimma Aba Jifar
0.71

allows per match

Arba Minch Kenema
1.12
Jimma Aba Jifar
1.34

finishing

Arba Minch Kenema+0.00on par
Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arba Minch Kenema ↓

Jimma Aba Jifar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Arba Minch Kenema or draw
71%
Arba Minch Kenema or Jimma Aba Jifar
70%
Draw or Jimma Aba Jifar
60%

Winning margin

Arba Minch Kenema wins by 2+
17%
Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arba Minch Kenema 1+ goals
68%
Arba Minch Kenema 2+ goals
31%
Arba Minch Kenema 3+ goals
11%
Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals
60%
Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals
23%
Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Arba Minch Kenema (draw refunded)
58%
Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arba Minch Kenema at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.12 · 66 matches

Jimma Aba Jifar away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arba Minch Kenema attack 0.91 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.13

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.71 + Arba Minch Kenema defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Arba Minch Kenema scores more
40%
level
30%
Jimma Aba Jifar scores more
29%

Arba Minch Kenema at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arba Minch Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Arba Minch Kenema 0–0 Jimma Aba Jifar

Arba Minch Kenema and Jimma Aba Jifar drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Hawassa Stadium in Hawassa.