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Jigawa Golden Stars vs Abia Warriors — NPFL 2019

Jigawa Golden Stars
Jigawa Golden Stars
CANC
00:00
Abia Warriors
Abia Warriors
4/5/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 29Hadejia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Jigawa Golden Stars53%
×Draw28%
Abia Warriors19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jigawa Golden Stars
1.35
Abia Warriors
0.68

Jigawa Golden Stars creates 99% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 128 away

creates per match

Jigawa Golden Stars
1.16
Abia Warriors
0.73

allows per match

Jigawa Golden Stars
0.63
Abia Warriors
1.55

finishing

Jigawa Golden Stars+0.00on par
Abia Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jigawa Golden Stars ↓

Abia Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Jigawa Golden Stars or draw
81%
Jigawa Golden Stars or Abia Warriors
72%
Draw or Abia Warriors
47%

Winning margin

Jigawa Golden Stars wins by 2+
26%
Abia Warriors wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jigawa Golden Stars 1+ goals
74%
Jigawa Golden Stars 2+ goals
39%
Jigawa Golden Stars 3+ goals
15%
Abia Warriors 1+ goals
49%
Abia Warriors 2+ goals
15%
Abia Warriors 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Jigawa Golden Stars (draw refunded)
74%
Abia Warriors (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jigawa Golden Stars at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.63 · 32 matches

Abia Warriors away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jigawa Golden Stars attack 1.16 + Abia Warriors defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.35

Abia Warriors attack 0.73 + Jigawa Golden Stars defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Jigawa Golden Stars scores more
53%
level
28%
Abia Warriors scores more
19%

Jigawa Golden Stars at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Jigawa Golden Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Jigawa Golden Stars host Abia Warriors

April 5, 2020: Jigawa Golden Stars take on Abia Warriors in NPFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Jigawa Golden Stars host Abia Warriors at Hadejia Township Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.