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Abia Warriors vs Jigawa Golden Stars — NPFL 2019

Abia Warriors
Abia Warriors
FT
2 – 1
Jigawa Golden Stars
Jigawa Golden Stars
12/18/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 9Umuahia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Abia Warriors66%
×Draw23%
Jigawa Golden Stars12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abia Warriors
1.73
Jigawa Golden Stars
0.57

Abia Warriors creates 204% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 31 away

creates per match

Abia Warriors
1.50
Jigawa Golden Stars
0.55

allows per match

Abia Warriors
0.60
Jigawa Golden Stars
1.97

finishing

Abia Warriors+0.00on par
Jigawa Golden Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abia Warriors ↓

Jigawa Golden Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Abia Warriors or draw
88%
Abia Warriors or Jigawa Golden Stars
77%
Draw or Jigawa Golden Stars
34%

Winning margin

Abia Warriors wins by 2+
38%
Jigawa Golden Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Abia Warriors 1+ goals
82%
Abia Warriors 2+ goals
52%
Abia Warriors 3+ goals
25%
Jigawa Golden Stars 1+ goals
43%
Jigawa Golden Stars 2+ goals
11%
Jigawa Golden Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Abia Warriors (draw refunded)
85%
Jigawa Golden Stars (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abia Warriors at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.60 · 127 matches

Jigawa Golden Stars away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abia Warriors attack 1.50 + Jigawa Golden Stars defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.73

Jigawa Golden Stars attack 0.55 + Abia Warriors defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Abia Warriors scores more
66%
level
23%
Jigawa Golden Stars scores more
12%

Abia Warriors at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Abia Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Abia Warriors 2–1 Jigawa Golden Stars

Abia Warriors beat Jigawa Golden Stars 2-1 in NPFL on December 18, 2019.

The match was played at Umuahia Township Stadium in Umuahia.