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Orgryte IS vs IK Frej — Superettan 2018

Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
IK Frej
IK Frej
4/15/2019SuperettanSuperettan · Round 3Gamla Ullevi (Göteborg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Orgryte IS49%
×Draw24%
IK Frej27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orgryte IS
1.75
IK Frej
1.25

Orgryte IS creates 40% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 30 away

creates per match

Orgryte IS
1.67
IK Frej
1.30

allows per match

Orgryte IS
1.21
IK Frej
1.83

finishing

Orgryte IS+0.00on par
IK Frej+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orgryte IS ↓

IK Frej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Orgryte IS or draw
73%
Orgryte IS or IK Frej
76%
Draw or IK Frej
51%

Winning margin

Orgryte IS wins by 2+
27%
IK Frej wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Orgryte IS 1+ goals
83%
Orgryte IS 2+ goals
52%
Orgryte IS 3+ goals
25%
IK Frej 1+ goals
71%
IK Frej 2+ goals
36%
IK Frej 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Orgryte IS (draw refunded)
64%
IK Frej (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orgryte IS at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.21 · 122 matches

IK Frej away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orgryte IS attack 1.67 + IK Frej defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

IK Frej attack 1.30 + Orgryte IS defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Orgryte IS scores more
49%
level
24%
IK Frej scores more
27%

Orgryte IS at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Orgryte IS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Orgryte IS 2–0 IK Frej

Orgryte IS beat IK Frej 2-0 in Superettan on April 15, 2019.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi (Göteborg).