IK Frej 1–1 Orgryte IS: Result & Stats | Superettan

IK Frej

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Orgryte IS

7/20/2019

Superettan · Round 16Vikingavallen (Täby)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

IK Frej35%

×Draw24%

Orgryte IS41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IK FrejExpected goals in this matchOrgryte IS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.58

IK Frej

1.43

Orgryte IS

1.58

Orgryte IS creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 122 away

1.40

creates per match

1.29

1.87

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

IK Frej

1.40

Orgryte IS

1.29

allows per match

IK Frej

1.87

Orgryte IS

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IK Frej+0.00on par

Orgryte IS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK Frej ↓

Orgryte IS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

IK Frej or draw

59%

IK Frej or Orgryte IS

76%

Draw or Orgryte IS

65%

Winning margin

IK Frej wins by 2+

16%

Orgryte IS wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

IK Frej 1+ goals

76%

IK Frej 2+ goals

42%

IK Frej 3+ goals

17%

Orgryte IS 1+ goals

79%

Orgryte IS 2+ goals

47%

Orgryte IS 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

IK Frej (draw refunded)

46%

Orgryte IS (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK Frej at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Orgryte IS away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK Frej attack 1.40 + Orgryte IS defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.43

Orgryte IS attack 1.29 + IK Frej defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

IK Frej scores more

35%

level

24%

Orgryte IS scores more

41%

Orgryte IS at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Orgryte IS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff