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Jiangxi Liansheng vs Guangxi Lanhang — League Two 2022

Jiangxi Liansheng
Jiangxi Liansheng
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
9/14/2025League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Group - 3Ruichang Sports Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Jiangxi Liansheng49%
×Draw27%
Guangxi Lanhang24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jiangxi Liansheng
1.43
Guangxi Lanhang
0.92

Jiangxi Liansheng creates 55% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 40 away

creates per match

Jiangxi Liansheng
1.35
Guangxi Lanhang
0.88

allows per match

Jiangxi Liansheng
0.96
Guangxi Lanhang
1.50

finishing

Jiangxi Liansheng+0.00on par
Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiangxi Liansheng ↓

Guangxi Lanhang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Jiangxi Liansheng or draw
76%
Jiangxi Liansheng or Guangxi Lanhang
73%
Draw or Guangxi Lanhang
51%

Winning margin

Jiangxi Liansheng wins by 2+
24%
Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Jiangxi Liansheng 1+ goals
76%
Jiangxi Liansheng 2+ goals
42%
Jiangxi Liansheng 3+ goals
17%
Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
60%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
23%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jiangxi Liansheng (draw refunded)
67%
Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiangxi Liansheng at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 23 matches

Guangxi Lanhang away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiangxi Liansheng attack 1.35 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.88 + Jiangxi Liansheng defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jiangxi Liansheng scores more
49%
level
27%
Guangxi Lanhang scores more
24%

Jiangxi Liansheng at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Jiangxi Liansheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jiangxi Liansheng vs Guangxi Lanhang

Jiangxi Liansheng beat Guangxi Lanhang 5-1 in League Two on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Ruichang Sports Park Stadium in Jiujiang.