Guangxi Lanhang 1–5 Jiangxi Liansheng

Guangxi Lanhang

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Jiangxi Liansheng

10/18/2025

League Two · Relegation Group - 7Dongxing Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Guangxi Lanhang23%

×Draw27%

Jiangxi Liansheng51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangxi LanhangExpected goals in this matchJiangxi Liansheng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.46

Guangxi Lanhang

0.88

Jiangxi Liansheng

1.46

Jiangxi Liansheng creates 66% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 22 away

0.80

creates per match

1.23

1.70

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Guangxi Lanhang

0.80

Jiangxi Liansheng

1.23

allows per match

Guangxi Lanhang

1.70

Jiangxi Liansheng

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Jiangxi Liansheng+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Lanhang ↓

Jiangxi Liansheng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Guangxi Lanhang or draw

49%

Guangxi Lanhang or Jiangxi Liansheng

73%

Draw or Jiangxi Liansheng

77%

Winning margin

Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+

7%

Jiangxi Liansheng wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals

59%

Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals

22%

Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals

6%

Jiangxi Liansheng 1+ goals

77%

Jiangxi Liansheng 2+ goals

43%

Jiangxi Liansheng 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)

31%

Jiangxi Liansheng (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Lanhang at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

Jiangxi Liansheng away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.80 + Jiangxi Liansheng defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.88

Jiangxi Liansheng attack 1.23 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Guangxi Lanhang scores more

23%

level

27%

Jiangxi Liansheng scores more

51%

Jiangxi Liansheng at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jiangxi Liansheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff