Jiangxi Liansheng 0–1 Guangxi Baoyun

Jiangxi Liansheng

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Guangxi Baoyun

7/6/2024

League One · Round 16Ruichang Sports Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Jiangxi Liansheng30%

×Draw27%

Guangxi Baoyun43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jiangxi LianshengExpected goals in this matchGuangxi Baoyun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.38

Jiangxi Liansheng

1.12

Guangxi Baoyun

1.38

Guangxi Baoyun creates 23% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 63 away

0.99

creates per match

0.86

1.89

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Jiangxi Liansheng

0.99

Guangxi Baoyun

0.86

allows per match

Jiangxi Liansheng

1.89

Guangxi Baoyun

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jiangxi Liansheng+0.00on par

Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiangxi Liansheng ↓

Guangxi Baoyun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Jiangxi Liansheng or draw

57%

Jiangxi Liansheng or Guangxi Baoyun

73%

Draw or Guangxi Baoyun

70%

Winning margin

Jiangxi Liansheng wins by 2+

12%

Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Jiangxi Liansheng 1+ goals

67%

Jiangxi Liansheng 2+ goals

31%

Jiangxi Liansheng 3+ goals

10%

Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals

75%

Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals

40%

Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Jiangxi Liansheng (draw refunded)

42%

Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiangxi Liansheng at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.89 · 72 matches

Guangxi Baoyun away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiangxi Liansheng attack 0.99 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.12

Guangxi Baoyun attack 0.86 + Jiangxi Liansheng defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jiangxi Liansheng scores more

30%

level

27%

Guangxi Baoyun scores more

43%

Guangxi Baoyun at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Guangxi Baoyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff