Guangxi Baoyun 2–0 Jiangxi Liansheng

Guangxi Baoyun

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Jiangxi Liansheng

3/9/2024

League One · Round 1Pingguo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Guangxi Baoyun48%

×Draw26%

Jiangxi Liansheng25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangxi BaoyunExpected goals in this matchJiangxi Liansheng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.97

Guangxi Baoyun

1.46

Jiangxi Liansheng

0.97

Guangxi Baoyun creates 51% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 73 away

1.32

creates per match

0.95

1.00

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Guangxi Baoyun

1.32

Jiangxi Liansheng

0.95

allows per match

Guangxi Baoyun

1.00

Jiangxi Liansheng

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par

Jiangxi Liansheng+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Baoyun ↓

Jiangxi Liansheng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Guangxi Baoyun or draw

75%

Guangxi Baoyun or Jiangxi Liansheng

74%

Draw or Jiangxi Liansheng

52%

Winning margin

Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+

24%

Jiangxi Liansheng wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals

77%

Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals

43%

Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals

18%

Jiangxi Liansheng 1+ goals

62%

Jiangxi Liansheng 2+ goals

25%

Jiangxi Liansheng 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)

66%

Jiangxi Liansheng (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Baoyun at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

Jiangxi Liansheng away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.59 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Baoyun attack 1.32 + Jiangxi Liansheng defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Jiangxi Liansheng attack 0.95 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Guangxi Baoyun scores more

48%

level

26%

Jiangxi Liansheng scores more

25%

Guangxi Baoyun at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Guangxi Baoyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff